{"id":"ed2d41cf-efc3-4268-a1d4-d6e911f632be","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"After the leftover hunts, still no live book","slug":"after-the-leftover-hunts-still-no-live-book","excerpt":"Map 2: overlapping crowded-long PROMOTED demoted by nonoverlap (t=1.60). Residue: vol clustering, BTC/ETH 15m vol residual, crowded-long mean. Still no live book.","content":"# After the leftover hunts, still no live book\n\n**Editorial map 2.** Not a new prereg. Not live advice. Supersedes [What a week of falsification left standing](https://rlxbt.com/articles/what-a-week-of-falsification-left-standing) as the scoreboard.\n\n## Thesis\n\nStill **no live book**.\n\nThe first map left thin next-bar fades (dead at 5 bps) and vol markers. The leftover doors were run. One directional object **cleared** overlapping 5 bps and then **failed** a single-position 8h gate. Do not keep the overlapping t.\n\n### What is still standing as facts, not entries\n\n1. **Vol clustering** — 1h `|r|` AC1 ~0.25–0.30. Half-life will not rank twice ([vol memory](https://rlxbt.com/articles/btc-vol-memory-length-will-not-rank-the-same-twice)).\n2. **15m residual magnitude on BTC and ETH, not SOL** — extra next-bar `|r|` after `|r|` control ([BTC](https://rlxbt.com/articles/15-minute-volume-still-adds-a-little-extra-next-bar-size), [ETH](https://rlxbt.com/articles/eth-15-minute-volume-leftover-is-not-a-btc-costume), [SOL kill](https://rlxbt.com/articles/sol-15-minute-volume-leftover-is-just-a-bigger-shock)).\n3. **Crowded-long mean underperformance** — global account-ratio HIGH underperforms MID over 8h on BTC/ETH/SOL. Not independently tradeable after the nonoverlap stress.\n\n## The L/S saga (read before quoting PROMOTED)\n\n1. [Crowded longs underperform; crowded shorts do not bounce](https://rlxbt.com/articles/crowded-longs-underperform-crowded-shorts-do-not-bounce) — **WATCH**\n2. [Crowded longs underperform on ETH and SOL too](https://rlxbt.com/articles/crowded-longs-underperform-on-eth-and-sol-too) — **WATCH**\n3. [Crowded-long short clears validation — research object, not a live bot](https://rlxbt.com/articles/crowded-long-short-clears-validation-research-object-not-a-live-bot) — overlapping **PROMOTED**\n4. [Crowded-long short does not survive a single-position book](https://rlxbt.com/articles/crowded-long-short-does-not-survive-a-single-position-book) — **WATCH demotion** (n=71, t=1.60)\n5. [Top-trader longs are the same crowded-long dummy](https://rlxbt.com/articles/top-trader-longs-are-the-same-crowded-long-dummy) — **NO_EDGE** (corr 0.99)\n6. [Position-weighted top-trader longs do not clear validation](https://rlxbt.com/articles/position-weighted-top-trader-longs-do-not-clear-validation) — **NO_EDGE**\n\n**Do not quote step 3 without step 4.**\n\n## Closed leftover doors\n\nFunding→perp same null as spot · residualized OI OVERFIT · regime half-life anti-replicates · futures taker no increment over spot · SOL vol15 selection · ETH/BTC z-fade · daily TSMOM / MR / XSMOM.\n\n## Honest residue\n\nVol clustering. 15m volume residual magnitude (BTC/ETH). Crowded-long **mean** underperformance that collapses under single-position independence. Thin 1h fades that die at 5 bps.\n\n**No live signal.**\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T09:16:25.100Z","backtestResults":{"bars":null,"asset":"MULTI","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"mixed","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T09:16:25.101Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T10:30:43.508Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"},{"id":"5f912510-d9a3-4839-aa73-675f1bf9d072","name":"map","slug":"map","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T08:20:38.805Z"},{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"8824d387-57f7-4905-a5a9-9f117ad33ec6","name":"editorial","slug":"editorial","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T08:20:38.802Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}