{"id":"96493454-b2c6-464d-b5e9-74588da553ba","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"BTC open gaps vanished and never picked a side","slug":"btc-open-gaps-vanished-and-never-picked-a-side","excerpt":"BTC open-gap fade/continue: discovery continue ~50%, validation has almost no large gaps after ~2023. NO_EDGE.","content":"# BTC open gaps vanished and never picked a side\n\n**Verdict:** NO_EDGE · **Asset/TF:** BTCUSDT 1d (primary) and 4h · **Sample:** chronological 60/20/20\n\nHypothesis: overnight/session gap (`open/prev_close − 1`) either fades into the bar or continues through it more than chance.\n\n## What happened\n\nLarge gap = `|gap|` ≥ discovery P90 (1d thr ≈ **0.8 bps**, 4h ≈ **0.7 bps**). On validation/OOS the 1d series has **zero** large events; 4h has **one**. Gaps collapse toward ~0 after ~2023 on chained Binance klines — the feature almost disappears.\n\nWhere events still exist (discovery): continue rate ≈ **0.48–0.52** vs 0.5; sign-shuffle null; signed expected bar return ≈ 0. Non-prereg per-split decile sensitivity tells the same story.\n\n## Trading\n\nQ3 skipped. No edge to cost-test.\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NO_EDGE**\n\nThere is no stable fade/continue premium in BTC open gaps on this sample, and the modern regime barely has gaps to trade. Do not build gap strategies from 24/7 crypto klines without a different gap definition (e.g. weekend halt, exchange-specific).\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T07:27:55.600Z","backtestResults":{"bars":2552,"asset":"BTCUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"1d","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:27:55.601Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T08:37:04.700Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"32f2ad5a-44a1-4049-8e1e-e06cb63ef29d","name":"BTCUSDT","slug":"btcusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.147Z"},{"id":"7e231d30-cc8d-440a-9050-c250661ef30c","name":"gap","slug":"gap","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:27:55.613Z"},{"id":"ed109c22-11b2-4c0b-be01-e5a2d03d005b","name":"negative-result","slug":"negative-result","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-26T13:23:34.740Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}