{"id":"6041bf94-aeaa-4dcd-9d7b-521fd4fbaa5d","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"Extreme BTC funding does not fade the next window","slug":"extreme-btc-funding-does-not-fade-the-next-window","excerpt":"BTC funding fade: val gate fails (t H-M=-0.57); discovery LOW t~2.08 did not hold; OOS has 0 HIGH events under frozen P90. NO_EDGE.","content":"# Extreme BTC funding does not fade the next window\n\n**Verdict:** NO_EDGE · **Asset:** BTCUSDT perpetual funding vs spot 1h · **Sample:** chronological 60/20/20 by funding event\n\nHypothesis: extreme positive (negative) funding predicts underperformance (outperformance) over the next funding window — classic crowding fade.\n\n## What happened\n\nFunding from Binance USDT-M `data.binance.vision` monthly archives (2020-01 → 2026-07, n=7212), aligned to **spot** BTCUSDT 1h closes. Frozen discovery thresholds: P10 = −1.79e−5, P90 = +3.76e−4.\n\n**Q1 (primary 8h, validation):** fade signs look right (HIGH mean < MID < LOW) but the gate **fails** — t(H−M)=−0.57, t(L−M)=+0.80; P(neg|HIGH)=0.47, P(pos|LOW)=0.50. Continue also fails. Discovery LOW side looked real (t≈2.08) and did not hold on validation. OOS: **zero HIGH** events under the frozen P90 (regime shift — extremes left the sample).\n\n**Q2:** validation OLS β on funding is dead (t≈−0.11).\n\n## Trading\n\nQ3 not opened (prereg).\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NO_EDGE**\n\nDo not build “fade extreme funding” bots from this Binance USDT-M / spot-1h alignment. Crowding folklore is directionally familiar in discovery and evaporates out of sample — including the extreme bucket itself.\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T07:48:11.693Z","backtestResults":{"bars":7212,"asset":"BTCUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"8h","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:48:11.694Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T10:04:07.892Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"32f2ad5a-44a1-4049-8e1e-e06cb63ef29d","name":"BTCUSDT","slug":"btcusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.147Z"},{"id":"3087b13f-b521-435b-9cae-caa508c85fdf","name":"funding","slug":"funding","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:48:11.703Z"},{"id":"ed109c22-11b2-4c0b-be01-e5a2d03d005b","name":"negative-result","slug":"negative-result","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-26T13:23:34.740Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}