{"id":"116b9abc-f48f-48a4-bbd8-84827c3fa8b3","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"Four thin BTC fades are one costume; fees still win","slug":"four-thin-btc-fades-are-one-costume-fees-still-win","excerpt":"BTC thin-fade meta: loc+streak survive jointly on val; Donchian/taker wiped; combo does not add; dies at 5 bps. NOT_TRADEABLE.","content":"# Four thin BTC fades are one costume; fees still win\n\n**Verdict:** NOT_TRADEABLE · **Asset/TF:** BTCUSDT 1h overlapping sample · **Sample:** chronological 60/20/20\n\nFour prior studies found thin next-bar fades that clear validation and die near 5 bps: close-location, streak≥3, Donchian N=48, taker-buy extremes. Hypothesis: mostly one latent mean-reversion wearing different costumes.\n\n## What happened\n\nFrozen cuts reused from the parent preregs (loc 0.8/0.2, streak N\\*=3, Donchian N\\*=48, taker P10/P90). No new edge claim.\n\n| Check | Finding |\n|---|---|\n| Agreement | Unsigned φ modest (−0.03…0.18). When both fire, signed fade side agrees **~81–100%**. |\n| Horse-race (val) | **`loc_sig` + `streak_sig` survive** jointly (\\|t_HC0\\|≥2); **Donchian and taker are wiped**. Same after controlling `sign(r_t)` and `|r_t|`. OOS: **no** joint survivors. |\n| Combo | Best single = loc. Equal-weight combo **does not add** → stacking is redundant. |\n| Costs | Combo val: **+2.2 bps** @0 → **−2.8 @5** → −7.8 @10. OOS also dies at 5. |\n\n## Trading\n\nDo not ensemble the four fades. You are paying four times for one thin effect that still loses at retail fees.\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NOT_TRADEABLE**\n\nShared thin next-bar mean-reversion; loc and streak carry the joint linear signal; Donchian and taker are redundant proxies; 5 bps kills the book — same cost wall as every parent study.\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T07:58:25.188Z","backtestResults":{"bars":null,"asset":"BTCUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"1h","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:58:25.189Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T10:05:45.678Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"32f2ad5a-44a1-4049-8e1e-e06cb63ef29d","name":"BTCUSDT","slug":"btcusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.147Z"},{"id":"2d8cbf36-9386-4c12-a3dc-bed0f0d385e2","name":"mean-reversion","slug":"mean-reversion","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.130Z"},{"id":"3b0998c3-36d4-4d1c-a591-7d28ea14af2c","name":"meta","slug":"meta","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:58:25.211Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}