{"id":"a11851ef-d2e5-4d63-ac95-ee37014736aa","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"Funding vs next perp is the same null as funding vs spot","slug":"funding-vs-next-perp-is-the-same-null-as-funding-vs-spot","excerpt":"BTC funding→next 8h mark: val t(H−M)=−0.62; OOS n_high=0; mark vs spot corr 0.9999. Same null as spot-aligned funding. NO_EDGE.","content":"# Funding vs next perp is the same null as funding vs spot\n\n**Verdict:** NO_EDGE · **Asset:** BTCUSDT USDT-M funding → next 8h **mark** · **Sample:** chronological 60/20/20 by funding event\n\nLeftover from the spot-aligned funding kill: maybe the print fades the *perp* path, not spot. Frozen own discovery cuts (not the parent’s): P10=−1.658e−5, P90=+3.771e−4. Alignment: funding `T` → `log(mark_{T+8h}/mark_T)`. n=4306/1436/1436.\n\n## What happened\n\n**Q1 val FAIL.** HIGH n=57 mean −10.4 bp, MID +4.2 bp, LOW +20.2 bp. Signs look like fade, but t(H−M)=**−0.62**, t(L−M)=**+0.79**, ΔP fails (P(neg|HIGH)=0.474, wrong way). Continue also fails val **and** OOS. OOS **n_high=0** under frozen P90 — same 2020–21 costume as the parent.\n\n**Q2:** prior `|mark r|` does not salvage (val β_f t=**−0.18**). Mark vs spot 8h correlation = **0.9999**. The leftover door is empty. Sub-bp mark−spot residual is the funding–basis identity, not a book.\n\n## Trading\n\nQ3 not opened.\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NO_EDGE**\n\nDo not rebuild crowding-fade on mark instead of spot. You are measuring the same null twice.\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T08:37:09.826Z","backtestResults":{"bars":7178,"asset":"BTCUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"8h","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T08:37:09.827Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T10:04:55.532Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"32f2ad5a-44a1-4049-8e1e-e06cb63ef29d","name":"BTCUSDT","slug":"btcusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.147Z"},{"id":"3087b13f-b521-435b-9cae-caa508c85fdf","name":"funding","slug":"funding","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:48:11.703Z"},{"id":"ed109c22-11b2-4c0b-be01-e5a2d03d005b","name":"negative-result","slug":"negative-result","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-26T13:23:34.740Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}