{"id":"f0d936a3-8169-4c1c-9dfd-71cd73111da4","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"Pattern Lab analogues do not retrieve the leftover","slug":"pattern-lab-analogues-do-not-retrieve-the-leftover","excerpt":"BTC 1h 3-channel analog (close+vol residual+L/S) val mean +9.4 bp, t vs unmatched 0.42, t vs price-only 0.55. Wrong sign. NO_EDGE.","content":"# Pattern Lab analogues do not retrieve the leftover\n\n**Verdict:** NO_EDGE · **Asset:** BTCUSDT · **Setup:** 24h multi-channel analogue (close + volume residual + global L/S) vs price-only · **Sample:** 1h, chronological 60/20/20, 2020-09 → 2026-08\n\nThe product thesis is retrieval: windows that *look like* the leftover state should carry a directional 8h edge that price shape alone does not. Sketch frozen on discovery HIGH ∩ high `vol_resid` (n=283). Weights 0.40 / 0.30 / 0.30. min_sim 0.60, purged. Direction short, inherited from crowded-long (discovery mean already −9.7 bp, t=−0.84).\n\n## What happened\n\n**Q1 val FAIL.** 3-channel matches n=124, mean **+9.4 bp** (wrong sign), t vs unmatched **0.42**, t vs price-only **0.55**. Price-only val mean −0.2 bp. close+vol −12.9 bp, still fails. OOS 3ch +2.6 bp. Not WATCH (t near 0, sign does not hold).\n\n**Q2:** matches are **not** HIGH in costume (only 8.9% overlap). Match dummy dies (t=0.58). HIGH dummy still fade-signed (t=−7.90). The leftover lives in the *level dummy*, not in the *shape*.\n\n**Q3:** skipped. Product `search_pattern_sketch` agreed: 3ch mixed, price-only even printed a bullish hypothesis.\n\n## Trading\n\nDo not trade Pattern Lab analogues of crowded-long + leftover volume. Do not re-promote the L/S HIGH leftover via a shape costume.\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NO_EDGE**\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T10:53:26.510Z","backtestResults":{"bars":51943,"asset":"BTCUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"1h","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset","search_pattern_sketch","analyze_event_patterns"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T10:53:26.511Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T13:03:49.516Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"32f2ad5a-44a1-4049-8e1e-e06cb63ef29d","name":"BTCUSDT","slug":"btcusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.147Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"},{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"89d5224c-c194-4b2a-8fa8-ee543983ec4d","name":"pattern-lab","slug":"pattern-lab","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T10:53:26.541Z"},{"id":"ed109c22-11b2-4c0b-be01-e5a2d03d005b","name":"negative-result","slug":"negative-result","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-26T13:23:34.740Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}