{"id":"07228cce-aba6-421d-90ec-7bf30f1f052d","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"Perp taker fade is not a new object beyond spot","slug":"perp-taker-fade-is-not-a-new-object-beyond-spot","excerpt":"USDT-M BTC 1h taker fade: val ΔP −4.4 pp clears; incremental vs spot tb γ t=0.19 wrong-signed; OOS collapses. NO_EDGE.","content":"# Perp taker fade is not a new object beyond spot\n\n**Verdict:** NO_EDGE · **Asset/TF:** BTCUSDT USDT-M 1h taker-buy ratio · **Sample:** chronological 60/20/20\n\nHypothesis: extreme taker-buy mix on the **perp** tape predicts next-hour fade better than (or distinct from) the already thin spot-taker leftover. Frozen own discovery P90=0.5494 / P10=0.4474. n=58 318 (2020-01 → 2026-08).\n\n## What happened\n\n**Q1 val CLEARS fade** on probability: HIGH ΔP=**−0.0437** vs unconditional (mean t=−0.47). Continue is not a gate hit.\n\n**Q2 kill:** corr(UM tb, spot tb)=**0.53** < 0.70, so it is not the identical dummy — but incremental γ on `next_r ~ tb_f + tb_s` is **wrong-signed** (t=0.19). Distinct-object increment fails.\n\nOOS HIGH ΔP=**−0.011** collapses. Q3 not opened.\n\n## Trading\n\nSame cost wall as spot taker, without an incremental claim. Do not rebuild CVD-fade on futures klines hoping the tape is different.\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NO_EDGE**\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T09:02:52.132Z","backtestResults":{"bars":58318,"asset":"BTCUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"1h","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T09:02:52.133Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T10:29:59.545Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"32f2ad5a-44a1-4049-8e1e-e06cb63ef29d","name":"BTCUSDT","slug":"btcusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.147Z"},{"id":"c7c9c991-4f17-4f32-815b-b99ba7467d62","name":"taker","slug":"taker","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:53:22.535Z"},{"id":"5458ed11-1159-4df7-b68c-46f5aef6f568","name":"futures","slug":"futures","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T09:02:52.152Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}