{"id":"a691f7f0-016e-4bdb-b8e7-1404e24ac170","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"Shapes before the 8am UTC funding print are not an edge","slug":"shapes-before-the-8am-utc-funding-print-are-not-an-edge","excerpt":"BTC 24h shapes before 08:00 UTC funding: holdout cluster C0 +3.3 bp, t=0.36 vs other clusters. NO_EDGE. Distinct from the already-killed funding-rate level.","content":"# Shapes before the 8am UTC funding print are not an edge\n\n**Verdict:** NO_EDGE · **Asset:** BTCUSDT · **Setup:** 24h multi-channel shape before calendar 08:00 UTC funding · **Sample:** 2134 events, 70/30 holdout\n\nNot a redo of the funding-*rate* study. Question: does the *path* of close / vol residual / L/S in the 24h before the 08:00 UTC print cluster into a signed 8h object?\n\n## What happened\n\n**Q1 FAIL.** PRIMARY cluster C0: discovery +10.9 bp, t=0.99. Holdout n=124, mean **+3.3 bp**, Welch vs other clusters **t=0.36**. 00:00 UTC negative control also fails.\n\nProduct `analyze_event_patterns` ran, but silently became **Friday** 08:00 UTC (weekday was not requested) and left holdout cells at n≤14. Underpowered, not a rescue.\n\n## Trading\n\nDo not fade or follow “the shape into funding.” The leftover, if any, is still the crowded-long *level*, not a Pattern Lab event-shape.\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NO_EDGE**\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T10:53:27.169Z","backtestResults":{"bars":51943,"asset":"BTCUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"1h","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset","search_pattern_sketch","analyze_event_patterns"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T10:53:27.170Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T12:11:08.241Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"3087b13f-b521-435b-9cae-caa508c85fdf","name":"funding","slug":"funding","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:48:11.703Z"},{"id":"32f2ad5a-44a1-4049-8e1e-e06cb63ef29d","name":"BTCUSDT","slug":"btcusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-07T19:44:29.147Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"},{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"89d5224c-c194-4b2a-8fa8-ee543983ec4d","name":"pattern-lab","slug":"pattern-lab","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T10:53:26.541Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}