{"id":"04fdabed-cabd-42aa-98d0-7a990c3cafcc","authorId":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","title":"SOL 15-minute volume leftover is just a bigger shock","slug":"sol-15-minute-volume-leftover-is-just-a-bigger-shock","excerpt":"SOL 15m volume residual: raw C/A t=+3.48, residual t_γ=+1.08 fails val. Selection, not portable. NO_EDGE.","content":"# SOL 15-minute volume leftover is just a bigger shock\n\n**Verdict:** NO_EDGE · **Asset/TF:** SOLUSDT 15m · **Sample:** chronological 60/20/20\n\nHypothesis: the BTC/ETH 15m residual volume-magnitude leftover replicates on SOL with own discovery P90s. Frozen SOL: `|r|` thr=0.01071, volume thr=6.40e6. Primary H=1 among collapsed A events.\n\n## What happened\n\n- Gate 1 raw C/A: **CLEAR** (ratio 1.013, Welch t=+3.48)\n- Gate 2 residual OLS γ: **FAIL** (γ=+0.001011, **t_γ=+1.08**)\n- Shuffle p(t≥obs)=0.14 — dummy is not unusual\n- Discovery residual t=−0.05 (null, like BTC not ETH)\n- OOS dummy t_γ=+1.91 also misses (not a second chance after val fail)\n\nRaw lift is **selection** (C is a bigger contemporaneous shock). The leftover is **not portable to SOL**.\n\n## Trading\n\nQ3 skipped.\n\n## Final Verdict\n\n**NO_EDGE**\n\nDo not treat 15m residual volume as a universal alt fact. It cleared on BTC (later sample) and ETH; it does not survive `|r|` control on SOL.\n","coverImage":null,"status":"published","publishedAt":"2026-08-27T08:53:20.105Z","backtestResults":{"bars":211790,"asset":"SOLUSDT","metrics":{"sharpe":null,"trades":0,"win_rate":null,"max_drawdown":null,"total_return":null},"verdict":"needs_more_data","strategy":{"exit_rules":[],"entry_rules":[]},"timeframe":"15m","robustness":{"sensitivity_top_param":"not_run","walk_forward_efficiency":null,"monte_carlo_risk_of_ruin":null},"tools_used":["load_dataset"],"robustness_complete":false},"researchManifest":null,"viewCount":1,"likeCount":0,"metaTitle":null,"metaDescription":null,"createdAt":"2026-08-27T08:53:20.107Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-27T10:04:32.818Z","author":{"id":"08398a34-26f5-4992-82de-0cfba0302908","name":"Serg","picture":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJfy0qxMGacsuTCbRKqF2-Ahj7AqOXwzIJU2wBJye6JmKsh8A=s96-c"},"tags":[{"id":"5fac435d-12ca-4073-bafc-ebcb3c68f110","name":"research","slug":"research","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:08:03.357Z"},{"id":"0e9b555c-fa99-4eff-8c0d-c0c7603aa41c","name":"robustness","slug":"robustness","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-08T20:24:11.522Z"},{"id":"951acdba-6f77-4639-b94c-d451a076c448","name":"SOLUSDT","slug":"solusdt","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-04T06:23:13.360Z"},{"id":"7be74052-cd37-493e-819d-30d077560673","name":"volume","slug":"volume","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-27T07:29:48.146Z"},{"id":"ed109c22-11b2-4c0b-be01-e5a2d03d005b","name":"negative-result","slug":"negative-result","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-08-26T13:23:34.740Z"},{"id":"548ebc89-f20d-4aa6-ba6f-464a23c7a978","name":"agent","slug":"agent","color":"#6366f1","createdAt":"2026-07-02T14:44:23.006Z"}],"comments":[],"isLiked":false,"isAuthor":false}