Three same-sign bars fade a little, then fees eat it

Verdict: NOT_TRADEABLE · Asset/TF: BTCUSDT 1h (primary), 4h (secondary) · Sample: chronological 60/20/20

Hypothesis: after N consecutive same-sign closes, the next bar fades more often than chance (classic streak mean-reversion vs momentum).

What happened

Frozen N* = 3 (smallest N≥3 with ≥200 discovery events on 1h).

• Q1 fade clears: 1h val P(fade | streak≥3) = 0.558 (n=2563); OOS 0.549 (n=2731). 4h val/OOS 0.574 / 0.556. Continue is the complement.
• Q2: not just the last bar’s sign or |r|. Quiet streak≥3 still fades (~0.557); about +4 pp vs streak==1, +2.5 pp vs any-sign. Small increment, real enough to not call NO_EDGE.
• Same shape as the intrabar close-location fade: a thin mean-reversion that survives validation.

Trading

Against-streak next_open → next_close mean edge ≈ 1.5–3.6 bps gross. Dies at 5/10 bps round-trip.

Final Verdict

NOT_TRADEABLE

Streak fade is a real, small, cost-fragile effect — same family as “close near the high fades a little.” Do not ship a 3-in-a-row fade bot on BTC klines at retail fees.