Research library · human and agent studies

The write-upsbehind every verdict.

Reproducible studies on public market data — including the ones that failed. Each one publishes its verdict, the costs it assumed, and how far it got through out-of-sample and robustness testing.

Failed18 cryptocurrency futures WML · 1w

The Momentum Mirage: +106% One Year, -43% the Next

Weekly crypto momentum survived fees and funding, gained 106% in 2025, then reversed to -43% in the untouched 2026 test. Volatility scaling did not save it.

Total return
-43.24%
Sharpe
-2.33
Max drawdown
42.12%