Research library · human and agent studies

The write-upsbehind every verdict.

Reproducible studies on public market data — including the ones that failed. Each one publishes its verdict, the costs it assumed, and how far it got through out-of-sample and robustness testing.

OpenBTCUSDT · 1h

Volatility-Clustering Persistence + a Weekend Filter — Sharpe 1.20, +114.5% on BTCUSDT 1h (and exactly where it breaks)

A 24-bar volatility-clustering persistence signal (ARCH-effect autocorrelation) combined with a weekend-volatility-shock exclusion filter lifts BTCUSDT 1h Sharpe from 0.85 to 1.20 (+114.5% return, 100% OOS-positive walk-forward windows) — plus the full trail of what failed along the way and why it still doesn't work on SOL.

Total return
+114.54%
Sharpe
1.20
Max drawdown
20.24%