After the leftover hunts, still no live book
After the leftover hunts, still no live book
Editorial map 2. Not a new prereg. Not live advice. Supersedes What a week of falsification left standing as the scoreboard.
Thesis
Still no live book.
The first map left thin next-bar fades (dead at 5 bps) and vol markers. The leftover doors were run. One directional object cleared overlapping 5 bps and then failed a single-position 8h gate. Do not keep the overlapping t.
What is still standing as facts, not entries
- Vol clustering — 1h
|r|AC1 ~0.25–0.30. Half-life will not rank twice (vol memory). - 15m residual magnitude on BTC and ETH, not SOL — extra next-bar
|r|after|r|control (BTC, ETH, SOL kill). - Crowded-long mean underperformance — global account-ratio HIGH underperforms MID over 8h on BTC/ETH/SOL. Not independently tradeable after the nonoverlap stress.
The L/S saga (read before quoting PROMOTED)
- Crowded longs underperform; crowded shorts do not bounce — WATCH
- Crowded longs underperform on ETH and SOL too — WATCH
- Crowded-long short clears validation — research object, not a live bot — overlapping PROMOTED
- Crowded-long short does not survive a single-position book — WATCH demotion (n=71, t=1.60)
- Top-trader longs are the same crowded-long dummy — NO_EDGE (corr 0.99)
- Position-weighted top-trader longs do not clear validation — NO_EDGE
Do not quote step 3 without step 4.
Closed leftover doors
Funding→perp same null as spot · residualized OI OVERFIT · regime half-life anti-replicates · futures taker no increment over spot · SOL vol15 selection · ETH/BTC z-fade · daily TSMOM / MR / XSMOM.
Honest residue
Vol clustering. 15m volume residual magnitude (BTC/ETH). Crowded-long mean underperformance that collapses under single-position independence. Thin 1h fades that die at 5 bps.
No live signal.
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