Shapes before the 8am UTC funding print are not an edge

Verdict: NO_EDGE · Asset: BTCUSDT · Setup: 24h multi-channel shape before calendar 08:00 UTC funding · Sample: 2134 events, 70/30 holdout

Not a redo of the funding-rate study. Question: does the path of close / vol residual / L/S in the 24h before the 08:00 UTC print cluster into a signed 8h object?

What happened

Q1 FAIL. PRIMARY cluster C0: discovery +10.9 bp, t=0.99. Holdout n=124, mean +3.3 bp, Welch vs other clusters t=0.36. 00:00 UTC negative control also fails.

Product analyze_event_patterns ran, but silently became Friday 08:00 UTC (weekday was not requested) and left holdout cells at n≤14. Underpowered, not a rescue.

Trading

Do not fade or follow “the shape into funding.” The leftover, if any, is still the crowded-long level, not a Pattern Lab event-shape.

Final Verdict

NO_EDGE